High Stakes and Big Money: Key Insights into the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
Wisconsin is no stranger to the national spotlight .
For many years now, listed among the swing states for over twenty years, Wisconsin—often referred to as the Badger State—is closely watched by political campaigners and analysts leading up to presidential elections, including the most recent one. 2024 contest won by President Donald Trump .
This week, a race in Wisconsin to manage the equilibrium of authority within the state Supreme Court appears to be turning into a critical temperature assessment of voters' sentiments regarding both major political parties along with a vote on President Donald Trump , Elon Musk and Republican control resurfaces in Washington .
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"It truly marks the first significant election since Trump "And when Republicans assumed their positions in January," stated Barry Burden, a political science professor and head of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center.
Voters in Wisconsin will go to the polling stations on Tuesday to determine whether conservative Brad Schimel or liberal Susan Crawford will fill the vacant position at the state Supreme Court. The result of this will decide whether the state’s top court leans 4-3 either towards the ideological left or right.
With topics ranging from abortion to redistricting at stake, this state-wide contest is drawing nationwide focus from Democrats and Republicans alike.
To the right, Trump alongside his wealthy advisor Elon Musk have gone all in , using their political influence and financial resources to support Schimel’s campaign.
Total expenditures in this election have now exceeded the former high mark for the nation's costliest judicial contest, previously established two years prior within Wisconsin as well. The financial figure for this year might go over the $100 million threshold.
Here’s what you should be aware of regarding Tuesday’s election in Wisconsin and the potential consequences.
Who is participating in the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin?
After failing to secure reelection as Wisconsin's attorney general in 2018, Schimel, who was previously a judge from Waukesha County, joined the Supreme Court race.
He encounters Susan Crawford, who serves as a circuit court judge in Dane County, home to the city of Madison.
Both have garnered support from prominent figures on both the left and right. The former vice-presidential nominee and governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, Tim Walz has supported Crawford, whereas Trump has urged voters to support Schimel.
Large financial contributors pony up, including Musk.
Before the president entered the race, Trump’s wealthy supporter dove headfirst with a commitment worth nine-figure sum into the Wisconsin campaign. So far, this move stands out significantly. the largest contributor Musk has invested approximately $20 million to support Schimel.
Most recently, the world's richest man handed out a series of $1 million checks For voters who signed his "Petition Against activist judges," Elon Musk’s political action group, America PAC, initially posted about the initiative on X back in March. They offered $100 in cash per signature collected through the petition; however, they did not announce any major awards as part of this effort.
America PAC along with a political nonprofit funded by Musk, known as Building America's Future, has collectively invested over $15 million in Wisconsin.
Although far from matching Musk’s level of expenditure, significant donations have been made by Democratic supporters, such as billionaire investor George Soros, all hoping for Crawford’s success.
There isn't an apparent frontrunner in the Wisconsin court election polls.
As they head into Tuesday, neither Crawford nor Schimel has emerged as a definitive frontrunner.
A poll published Last week, according to the findings of the nonpartisan organization SoCal Strategies, Crawford was leading Schimel with a 50-42 advantage.
In a Marquette Law School Poll In a survey conducted in March, 29% of respondents viewed Schimel positively, whereas 32% had an unfavorable opinion of him. When it came to Crawford, only 19% held a favorable impression, with 23% viewing her negatively.
Momentum for Democrats?
Most people agree that this competition holds significant importance for all participants involved.
Jeremy Jansen, who serves as the communications director for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, stated, "I would consider this the first significant election since the 2024 general."
After a disheartening performance in the previous November, Democrats are seeking a resurgence. They've gained momentum from their victories in several special elections held this year, yet Wisconsin is anticipated to serve as the most significant test so far.
Democrat Kelly Haefermann, residing in Madison, Wisconsin, mentioned that there is significant worry among voters closely following the situation. She noted that progressive voters like her are acutely conscious of how the statewide supreme court election reflects broader national issues.
"This is do or die,” the 47-year-old higher education administrator told USA TODAY. "If we win this, this gives us the momentum to move forward. If we lose this, they're going to be a lot of really dejected people. I have not seen a joyful voter yet."
Jansen emphasized the significance of this specific election, stating that state and local polls frequently offer the clearest picture of present circumstances.
"Our districts are quite petite. The individuals representing these areas are deeply integrated into their communities, unlike perhaps a U.S. Senator or a U.S. Senate campaign," he stated.
And thus," Jansen continued, "they serve as an excellent indicator of voter sentiment, and I believe they can also become a crucial asset for the party.
Grade report for the Trump presidency
The risks are also present for Republicans.
The Republican Party holds a narrow grip on power in Congress, boasting a three-seat lead in the Senate and facing five open seats in the House. Trump has returned to the White House after securing the popular vote in November with a 1.5 percent advantage.
"But the party seems to be operating as though they have been granted permission for truly significant changes," Burden said to USA TODAY.
A defeat for conservatives in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election would represent a significant symbolic blow," he went on to say. "This could indicate that people have grown weary of their approach and desire a change, urging the administration to alter course.
Abortion is one of the topics at stake.
Given that Wisconsin has a Democratic governor paired with a Republican-led legislature, Burden remarked, "They're not accomplishing much meaningful legislation." Consequently, the state’s highest court frequently steps in as the ultimate arbiter of policies.
A contentious matter currently under consideration involves a 19th-century abortion prohibition that penalizes "the deliberate termination of a living fetus" and does not provide exemptions for cases involving rape or incest.
Crawford, the Democratic nominee who supports abortion rights, has emphasized her pro-choice position throughout her campaign. Schimel, however, maintains that there is no constitutional guarantee for abortion access.
In 2023, the issue of abortion was a central concern during Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, following closely after the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturned Roe v. Wade and reverse established nationwide policies on abortion rights. This particular electoral contest shifted the balance of power within the Wisconsin court system from being predominantly conservative to mainly liberal just two years prior.
Apart from abortion, topics that resonate with voters and feature prominently in candidate campaigns also encompass redistricting. Both Democratic and Republican parties are attempting to instill concern that should their rivals prevail, they would gain significant influence over how both state and federal electoral districts are remapped.
"Masons Di Palma, the communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee, stated that Democrats have made their goals very obvious: they see the Wisconsin Supreme Court election as an avenue to regain control of the House in 2026. They intend to use the court’s power to alter the redistricting process to benefit themselves, but we are resolved to prevent this from occurring,” he said in a statement.
In 2023, a court with a liberal majority endorsed revisions to the state legislature district boundaries in Wisconsin, which was expected to make elections more challenging for Republican candidates. However, they did not agree to revisit the state’s congressional maps when asked.
The article initially appeared on USA TODAY: The Wisconsin Supreme Court election carries significant implications and substantial funding: Key points to understand
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