European Nations Debate Conscription as Trump Reverses Stance

Scared by the possibility of reduced US security involvement and Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine over the last three years, European nations are discussing reintroducing mandatory military service to strengthen their defenses amid Russian hostility.

The assault on Ukraine launched by Russian president Vladimir Putin in 2022 took Europe by surprise, and concerns over NATO’s resilience intensified when U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted the transatlantic relationship by stating that Europe needed to handle its own defense.

Military experts as well as European governments recognize that the risk of Russian aggression is genuine, and it has become even more pronounced compared to what it was three years prior.

"Today’s Russian military is more substantial and stronger compared to February 24, 2022. They harbor aggressive intentions towards the Baltic countries as well as the European Union’s eastern border region," stated Alexandr Burilkov, a scholar affiliated with the Institute of Political Science (IPW) at Heidelberg University.

A study co-authored by Burilkov for think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute suggests that Europe might require an additional 300,000 troops to counteract Russian aggression, alongside maintaining 1.47 million current service members.

He stated that conscription would be necessary to achieve such a significant increase in troop numbers.

From Paris to Warsaw, leaders have been seeking ways to increase defense expenditures in response to U.S. warnings about potentially withdrawing its security assurances for Europe.

However, numerous nations like France and Britain have faced challenges in attracting and keeping soldiers. Implementing a new version of national service—whether mandatory or optional—could prove equally challenging.

A survey conducted by YouGov indicates that the majority of individuals in France (68 percent) and Germany (58 percent) favor compulsory military duty for youth. In contrast, opinions are split among Italians and Brits, whereas most Spaniards (53 percent) oppose this idea.

However, research indicates that numerous Europeans are not ready to fight for their nations.

"Benedicte Cheron, a French expert focusing on the relationship between society and the armed forces, stated that 'In an open society, enforcing military restrictions has almost become unfeasible,'" she explained.

Given that there is no invasion of the territory, it appears inconceivable to accept the political repercussions of enforcing sanctions on individuals who fail to respond to the mobilization order.

- 'Incentives' -

Following the end of the Cold War, many European nations ceased mandatory military service. Only nine countries—Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Turkey—did not halt this practice.

In 2015, Lithuania reinstated conscription, just one year following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. In 2017, Sweden adopted a similar approach, with Latvia doing the same in 2023.

However, aware of the political and economic consequences, none of NATO’s top five European contributors — namely France, Germany, the UK, Italy, and Poland — intend to enforce compulsory military service.

However, Poland, which abolished compulsory service in 2008, has declared intentions to provide military training annually to 100,000 citizens beginning in 2027. This program will be optional; nonetheless, the administration intends to establish a framework involving "rewards and encouragements," as stated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Germany's prospective next leader, Friedrich Merz, has stated his support for reinstating a mandatory year where youngsters can undertake either military duties or community work.

In Britain, the final conscripts were discharged in 1963, and the government has shown no intention of changing this policy.

"The idea of conscription isn’t under consideration; however, we have indeed announced significant growth in our defense spending," stated Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden.

In France, where mandatory military service concluded in 2001, President Emmanuel Macron has been seeking methods to motivate youth to engage in public service.

When responding to journalists on Saturday, he stated that France lacked the necessary “infrastructure” for reinstating mandatory military duty. However, his intention was to explore methods of engaging civilian participation and promised to make a statement within the next few weeks regarding this matter.

Introducing national service again would entail converting a significant portion of the army into training centers, according to French military historian Michel Goya.

In Italy, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has dismissed the idea of reinstating conscription but has expressed support for establishing a reserve force.

- 'East-wide divide' -

Experts suggest that Western European policymakers should take lessons from Nordic and Baltic nations, notably Finland and Sweden.

Finland, bordered extensively by Russia and subjected to invasion by the Soviet Union in 1939, boasts one of the most substantial reserve forces across European nations.

"The division between East and West remains an issue. Many individuals in Western Europe are reluctant to engage in combat," stated Burilkov. He indicated that persuading Europeans to sign up as volunteers would necessitate promotional efforts.

Additionally, there’s a connection between how individuals perceive the war’s winnability and their willingness to serve, hence significantly enhancing Europe’s military capacities could boost public confidence in these forces.

Goya indicated that Europeans were abruptly made aware of their frailty.

He stated that it’s only once the tide recedes that you discover who has been swimming without clothes.

The waters of the American seas are ebbing, and numerous European nations are thinking to themselves that indeed, they might be somewhat vulnerable after all.

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