Putin's Bluff Crumbles: ISW Uncovers No Evidence of Ukrainian Encirclement

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Images with geolocation data posted on March 12 suggest that Russian troops have made advances into the western section of Basovitsa, which lies north-east of Sumy.

On March 15, both Russia’s Defense Ministry and various Russian sources stated that they had seized Zaoleshchenka and Rubanshchina, located west of Sudzha; however, ISW analysts have yet to verify these reports. In addition, Russian military bloggers asserted that Russian troops had gained control over Gogolivka and were carrying out clearance activities in Guevo.

Read also: Putin’s ceasefire conditions expose his real aims: not peace, but preparation for another assault - ISW

As reported by these sources, Ukrainian soldiers continue to hold their ground near Oleshnytsia and Hurnyl, located south-west of Sudzhya. Meanwhile, Russian units stay active around Rubanivka, Hoholiuvka, and Hevelo.

On March 15, experts from DeepState stated that Russian troops had seized control of Sudzha and Rubanshchyna within the Kursk Oblast region. Moreover, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, updated map It suggests that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have pulled out from Sudzha. The International Strategic Studies Association (ISW) has not provided commentary on this claim.

According to reports, elements of Russia's 11th Air Assault Brigade are deployed close to Gogolivka, whereas the 810th Marine Brigade from the Black Sea Fleet and the 177th Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla are engaged around Guevo.

Russian war bloggers as well as Ukrainian authorities have dismissed Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s assertion that a substantial contingent of Ukrainian forces was surrounded in Kursk Oblast.

Read also: ISW: Evidence lacking for alleged Ukrainian troop 'encirclement' despite Putin's assertions

On March 14 and 15, Russian bloggers posted battle maps indicating an absence of surrounding Ukrainian forces. Two Russian bloggers directly contradicted Putin, emphasizing that the assertions about extensive encirclements were untrue.

A blogger proposed that Putin's comments were part of a Kremlin misinformation effort designed to sway U.S. President Donald Trump before peace negotiations.

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that Russian troops are failing to surround Ukrainian military units in Kursk Oblast; however, such an encirclement hasn’t taken place yet. Additionally, he mentioned that Moscow is circulating these assertions with the aim of postponing talks about the potential 30-day truce suggested by both the US and Ukraine.

Ukrainian independent sources have likewise refuted Putin’s assertions, highlighting that although facing difficult circumstances, Ukrainian troops retain their ability to move strategically and have not been completely surrounded.

Analysts from ISW discovered no proof backing assertions that Russian forces had encircled Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast. It is thought that Ukrainian soldiers have accessible escape routes via the national boundary.

Situation in Kursk Oblast

On March 14, U.S. President Donald Trump asserted on Truth Social It was alleged that "thousands" of Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded and urged Putin to "spare their lives." In response, Putin claimed that Russia would supposedly "assure safety and humane treatment" for the Ukrainian forces if they chose to surrender.

Ukraine’s General Staff denied Trump’s claims Regarding Ukrainian soldiers who found themselves encircled by Russian forces in the Kursk Oblast. The General Staff reported that Ukraine’s defense units had rearranged their positions and shifted to more fortified defensive locations.

Read also: Zelenskyy: No Encirclement of Ukrainians in Kursk, Operation Still Underway

On the night of March 14, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that The Kursk operation accomplished its goals. yet recognized that the circumstances were still "extremely challenging."

In its report dated March 14, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated that Putin utilized Trump’s statement about encirclement as a distraction from Russia’s reluctance to accept a truce in Ukraine. Additionally, the organization reported finding no indications that Ukrainian forces were surrounded by Russian units anywhere along the battlefront.

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Read the initial article on The Fresh Sound of Ukraine

Section: Russian war

Author: Alex Stezhensky

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