Bitcoin Price In Limbo Ahead Of Tariffs. Which Way Will Trading Break?
Cryptocurrency prices are in flux as the markets await President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, set to roll out on Wednesday and Thursday. Bitcoin and digital asset prices climbed on Tuesday. One analyst says it's a 50-50 shot to see a bitcoin rebound, or a further dive.
Kindly view the video at Investors.com titled "Trump Tariffs Are Disrupting The Stock Market. Here’s How It Might Unfold."
Approaching Liberation Day, the ambiguity surrounding the extent of the tariffs continues to keep Bitcoin and other risky assets in a state of suspense," noted Nic Puckrin, a crypto analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, which is an educational platform for cryptocurrencies.
Puckrin observed that Bitcoin has filled its latest CME gap from the weekend, which was near the $83,000 to $84,000 range. This CME gap signifies pricing differences between open and close values on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Nonetheless, Bitcoin is currently trading beneath its 200-day moving average, with minimal daily liquidations totaling less than $250 million within the past day. According to Puckrin, this suggests that downward momentum might resume soon.
He stated, “This sideways movement will persist until there’s greater certainty about the tariffs.” However, should we receive better-than-expected information or find areas for compromise, it might lead to a significant shift away from our present trading behavior. In such an event, Puckrin anticipates that $88,000 will become the key figure to monitor. Nonetheless, a substantial rise in trade volumes would still be necessary to confirm that this upward trend continues.
On the contrary, a sudden increase in tariffs might lead to a decline in Bitcoin’s value towards $79,000 in the short term, or potentially drop even further to the subsequent support level of $73,000 should intense fear dominate the market. Puckrin also mentioned that the present bitcoin long-short ratio stands nearly balanced at around 50-50. He stated, “At this moment, we have an equal chance of moving in either direction, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the current economic climate.”
Regarding positive signs, the past several weeks have seen minimal trading activity, and the crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in fear territory. According to Puckrin, this might suggest that the market is either at, or nearly at, a bottom point.
He stated that over an extended period, we can be quite certain that BTC will see an upturn from this point; the uncertainty lies solely in the timing.
Earlier in March, 10X Research issued a comparable report. caution of a possible decline to $73,000 The company observed that individual investors heavily invested in meme cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin surged to all-time peaks following the election in January. This peak probably marked the beginning of a decline, as numerous investment portfolios started to hold onto depreciating meme tokens. Back then, 10X indicated that for Bitcoin to drive another significant increase, it would require a new compelling story.
Bitcoin and Tariffs
How might tariffs influence Bitcoin? As per James Butterfill, who leads research at CoinShares, February note indicated that in the near future, tariffs would have an adverse effect on Bitcoin.
Butterfill states that "unlike gold, bitcoin includes a growth aspect, which means it responds to economic patterns and liquidity cycles."
At first, tariffs might hinder economic expansion, thereby diminishing the appetite for high-risk investments such as Bitcoin. Additionally, inflation could rise, prompting expectations of increased interest rates. Furthermore, tariffs may result in a short-term decline in prices, since cryptocurrencies frequently move in tandem with equity markets.
However, the long-term picture is a bit more positive. "At some point, the market will realize that the U.S. can't keep raising interest rates while the economy weakens (stagflation.)," Butterfill wrote. "When that happens, bitcoin will likely rebound, while stocks continue to struggle."
Bitcoin, Crypto Price Action
Bitcoin traded near $85,000 late Tuesday, up 2.6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Ethereum rose close to $1,900, marking an increase of 4.2% over that timeframe.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust along with other spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) climbed 3% on Tuesday.
Coinbase climbed 1.3%.
You can keep up with Harrison Miller for additional stock news and insights on X/Twitter. @IBD_Harrison
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